This notebook contains a set of analyses for analyzing Brittfish’s boardgamegeek collection. The bulk of the analysis is focused on building a user-specific predictive model to predict the games that the specified user is likely to own. This enables us to ask questions like, based on the games the user currently owns, what games are a good fit for their collection? What upcoming games are they likely to purchase?
We can look at a basic description of the number of games that the user owns, has rated, has previously owned, etc.
What years has the user owned/rated games from? While we can’t see when a user added or removed a game from their collection, we can look at their collection by the years in which their games were published.
We can look at the most frequent types of categories, mechanics, designers, and artists that appear in a user’s collection.
We’ll examine predictive models trained on a user’s collection for games published through 2020. How many games has the user owned/rated/played in the training set (games prior to 2020)?
username | dataset | period | games_owned | games_rated |
Brittfish | training | published before 2020 | 88 | 0 |
Brittfish | validation | published 2020 | 13 | 0 |
Brittfish | test | published after 2020 | 23 | 0 |
The main outcome we will be modeling for the user is owned, which refers to whether the user currently owns or has a previously owned a game in their collection. Our goal is to train a predictive model to learn the probability that a user will add a game to their collection based on its observable features. This amounts to looking at historical data and looking to find patterns that exist between features of games and games present in the user’s collection.
One of the models we trained was a decision tree, which looks for decision rules that can be used to separate games the user owns from games they don’t. The resulting model produces a decision corresponding to yes or no statements: to explain why the model predicts the user to own game, we start at the top of the tree and follow the rules that were learned from the training data.
Note: the tree below has been further pruned to make it easier to visualize.
Decision trees are highly interpretible models that are easy to train and can identify important interactions and nonlinearities present in the data. Individual trees have the drawback of being less predictive than other common models, but it can be useful to look at them to gain some understanding of key predictors and relationships found in the training data.
We can examine coefficients from another model we trained, which is a logistic regression with elastic net regularization (which I will refer to as a penalized logistic regression). Positive values indicate that a feature increases a user’s probability of owning/rating a game, while negative values indicate a feature decreases the probability. To be precise, the coefficients indicate the effect of a particular feature on the log-odds of a user owning a game.
Why did the model identify these features? We can make density plots of the important features for predicting whether the user owned a game. Blue indicates the density for games owned by the user, while grey indicates the density for games not owned by the user.
Binary predictors can be difficult to see with this visualization, so we can also directly examine the percentage of games in a user’s collection with a predictor vs the percentage of all games with that predictor.
% of Games with Feature | ||||
username | Feature | User_Collection | All_Games | Ratio |
Brittfish | Plaid Hat Games | 4.5% | 0.1% | 33.18 |
Brittfish | Wizards Of The Coast | 11.4% | 0.5% | 21.96 |
Brittfish | Splotter Spellen | 1.1% | 0.1% | 17.23 |
Brittfish | Asmodee | 26.1% | 2.5% | 10.30 |
Brittfish | Variable Setup | 13.6% | 1.4% | 9.81 |
Brittfish | Renegade Game Studios | 3.4% | 0.4% | 8.51 |
Brittfish | Solo Solitaire Game | 26.1% | 3.2% | 8.11 |
Brittfish | Cooperative Game | 35.2% | 6.1% | 5.76 |
Brittfish | Pegasus Spiele | 12.5% | 2.2% | 5.72 |
Brittfish | Artist Claus Stephan | 3.4% | 0.6% | 5.55 |
Brittfish | Take That | 20.5% | 5.1% | 4.02 |
Brittfish | City Building | 8.0% | 2.3% | 3.46 |
Brittfish | Fantasy | 38.6% | 11.8% | 3.27 |
Brittfish | Animals | 13.6% | 6.1% | 2.24 |
Brittfish | Card Game | 50.0% | 29.4% | 1.70 |
Brittfish | Grid Movement | 8.0% | 7.4% | 1.07 |
Before predicting games in upcoming years, we can examine how well the model did and what games it liked in the training set. In this case, we used resampling techniques (cross validation) to ensure that the model had not seen a game before making its predictions.
Displaying the 100 games from the training set with the highest probability of ownership, highlighting in blue games the user has owned.
Rank | Published | ID | Name | Pr(Owned) | Owned |
1 | 2019 | 281946 | Aftermath | 0.996 | no |
2 | 2011 | 96848 | Mage Knight Board Game | 0.820 | no |
3 | 2012 | 124708 | Mice and Mystics | 0.734 | yes |
4 | 2008 | 38453 | Space Alert | 0.629 | no |
5 | 2015 | 172220 | Dungeons & Dragons: Temple of Elemental Evil Board Game | 0.628 | yes |
6 | 2019 | 285984 | Last Bastion | 0.626 | no |
7 | 2017 | 174430 | Gloomhaven | 0.542 | yes |
8 | 2018 | 230253 | Star Realms: Frontiers | 0.496 | no |
9 | 2019 | 270971 | Era: Medieval Age | 0.490 | no |
10 | 2016 | 169786 | Scythe | 0.474 | no |
11 | 2019 | 266507 | Clank!: Legacy – Acquisitions Incorporated | 0.467 | no |
12 | 2017 | 228660 | Betrayal at Baldur's Gate | 0.463 | yes |
13 | 2011 | 91872 | Dungeons & Dragons: The Legend of Drizzt Board Game | 0.387 | yes |
14 | 2017 | 162886 | Spirit Island | 0.379 | no |
15 | 2014 | 157354 | Five Tribes | 0.368 | no |
16 | 2000 | 823 | The Lord of the Rings | 0.363 | no |
17 | 2004 | 10547 | Betrayal at House on the Hill | 0.346 | yes |
18 | 2017 | 230059 | Crossfire | 0.340 | no |
19 | 2016 | 205637 | Arkham Horror: The Card Game | 0.337 | yes |
20 | 2011 | 66356 | Dungeons & Dragons: Wrath of Ashardalon Board Game | 0.336 | yes |
21 | 2012 | 121921 | Robinson Crusoe: Adventures on the Cursed Island | 0.335 | no |
22 | 2019 | 265736 | Tiny Towns | 0.332 | no |
23 | 2014 | 132531 | Roll for the Galaxy | 0.319 | no |
24 | 2018 | 233312 | Stuffed Fables | 0.310 | yes |
25 | 2019 | 264220 | Tainted Grail: The Fall of Avalon | 0.305 | no |
26 | 2010 | 59946 | Dungeons & Dragons: Castle Ravenloft Board Game | 0.299 | yes |
27 | 2019 | 238992 | Call to Adventure | 0.288 | no |
28 | 2017 | 220775 | Codenames: Disney – Family Edition | 0.287 | no |
29 | 2010 | 73439 | Troyes | 0.278 | no |
30 | 2018 | 205896 | Rising Sun | 0.271 | no |
31 | 2017 | 188920 | This War of Mine: The Board Game | 0.268 | no |
32 | 2019 | 276025 | Maracaibo | 0.258 | no |
33 | 2018 | 254591 | Heroes of Terrinoth | 0.237 | no |
34 | 2013 | 143693 | Glass Road | 0.235 | no |
35 | 2015 | 175878 | 504 | 0.234 | no |
36 | 2012 | 110327 | Lords of Waterdeep | 0.233 | yes |
37 | 2018 | 257321 | Gen7: A Crossroads Game | 0.233 | no |
38 | 2016 | 205398 | Citadels | 0.231 | yes |
39 | 2015 | 155969 | Harbour | 0.218 | no |
40 | 2008 | 37380 | Roll Through the Ages: The Bronze Age | 0.217 | no |
41 | 2005 | 15987 | Arkham Horror | 0.209 | no |
42 | 2005 | 20806 | Three-Dragon Ante | 0.207 | no |
43 | 1993 | 463 | Magic: The Gathering | 0.202 | no |
44 | 2011 | 108784 | Ascension: Storm of Souls | 0.199 | no |
45 | 2019 | 269385 | The Lord of the Rings: Journeys in Middle-Earth | 0.198 | no |
46 | 2016 | 191189 | Aeon's End | 0.197 | yes |
47 | 2012 | 111341 | The Great Zimbabwe | 0.193 | no |
48 | 2016 | 205158 | Codenames: Deep Undercover | 0.189 | yes |
49 | 2004 | 17804 | Dungeons & Dragons Basic Game | 0.186 | no |
50 | 1999 | 552 | Bus | 0.184 | no |
51 | 2016 | 156858 | Black Orchestra | 0.183 | no |
52 | 2010 | 98778 | Hanabi | 0.183 | yes |
53 | 2018 | 199792 | Everdell | 0.178 | yes |
54 | 2000 | 18212 | Dungeons & Dragons Adventure Game | 0.178 | no |
55 | 2014 | 154203 | Imperial Settlers | 0.176 | no |
56 | 2019 | 256883 | Comanauts | 0.172 | no |
57 | 2017 | 201825 | Ex Libris | 0.171 | no |
58 | 2015 | 172242 | Exploding Kittens: NSFW Deck | 0.171 | no |
59 | 2015 | 182631 | Star Realms: Colony Wars | 0.170 | no |
60 | 2016 | 182340 | Star Trek: Frontiers | 0.170 | no |
61 | 2018 | 218421 | Street Masters | 0.167 | no |
62 | 2016 | 198994 | Hero Realms | 0.158 | yes |
63 | 2017 | 205597 | Jump Drive | 0.157 | no |
64 | 2018 | 257499 | Arkham Horror (Third Edition) | 0.150 | no |
65 | 2016 | 149787 | Perdition's Mouth: Abyssal Rift | 0.149 | no |
66 | 2017 | 200847 | Secrets | 0.147 | no |
67 | 2007 | 28143 | Race for the Galaxy | 0.142 | yes |
68 | 2019 | 283294 | Yukon Airways | 0.142 | no |
69 | 2019 | 272409 | Tiny Epic Tactics | 0.139 | no |
70 | 2016 | 198773 | Codenames: Pictures | 0.136 | no |
71 | 2018 | 255692 | New Frontiers | 0.133 | no |
72 | 2008 | 39463 | Cosmic Encounter | 0.133 | no |
73 | 2011 | 70919 | Takenoko | 0.127 | no |
74 | 2016 | 167791 | Terraforming Mars | 0.127 | yes |
75 | 2017 | 220308 | Gaia Project | 0.124 | no |
76 | 2005 | 15062 | Shadows over Camelot | 0.123 | no |
77 | 2016 | 207336 | Honshū | 0.123 | no |
78 | 2019 | 283849 | The Only Word: the Party Word Game | 0.122 | no |
79 | 1998 | 116 | Guillotine | 0.120 | no |
80 | 2012 | 122515 | Keyflower | 0.120 | no |
81 | 2018 | 246297 | Shadows: Amsterdam | 0.120 | no |
82 | 2004 | 10630 | Memoir '44 | 0.119 | no |
83 | 2008 | 37046 | Ghost Stories | 0.119 | no |
84 | 1975 | 1339 | Dungeon! | 0.118 | no |
85 | 2015 | 127096 | Metal Adventures | 0.118 | no |
86 | 2019 | 286096 | Tapestry | 0.118 | no |
87 | 2010 | 77130 | Sid Meier's Civilization: The Board Game | 0.116 | no |
88 | 2018 | 233080 | Book of Dragons | 0.115 | no |
89 | 2011 | 77423 | The Lord of the Rings: The Card Game | 0.109 | no |
90 | 2017 | 227456 | Escape the Dark Castle | 0.109 | no |
91 | 2017 | 231392 | Magic: The Gathering – Archenemy: Nicol Bolas | 0.109 | no |
92 | 2017 | 199561 | Sagrada | 0.105 | no |
93 | 2015 | 175621 | Epic Card Game | 0.104 | no |
94 | 2017 | 231197 | Raxxon | 0.102 | no |
95 | 2004 | 9220 | Saboteur | 0.101 | no |
96 | 2014 | 156336 | Onirim (Second Edition) | 0.098 | no |
97 | 2011 | 95064 | Ascension: Return of the Fallen | 0.097 | no |
98 | 2016 | 193037 | Dead of Winter: The Long Night | 0.097 | no |
99 | 2016 | 192777 | Junta: Las Cartas | 0.096 | no |
100 | 2019 | 230244 | Black Angel | 0.096 | no |
This section contains a variety of visualizations and metrics for assessing the performance of the model(s) during resampling. If you’re not particularly interested in predictive modeling, skip down further to the predictions from the model.
An easy way to examine the performance of classification model is to view a separation plot. We plot the predicted probabilities from the model for every game (from resampling) from lowest to highest. We then overlay a blue line for any game that the user does own. A good classifier is one that is able to separate the blue (games owned by the user) from the white (games not owned by the user), with most of the blue occurring at the highest probabilities (right side of the chart).
We can more formally assess how well each model did in resampling by looking at the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. A perfect model would receive a score of 1, while a model that cannot predict the outcome will default to a score of 0.5. The extent to which something is a good score depends on the setting, but generally anything in the .8 to .9 range is very good while the .7 to .8 range is perfectly acceptable.
wflow_id | .metric | .estimator | .estimate |
GLM | roc_auc | binary | 0.91 |
Decision Tree | roc_auc | binary | 0.76 |
Another way to think about the model performance is to view its lift, or its ability to detect the positive outcomes over that of a null model. High lift indicates the model can much more quickly find all of the positive outcomes (in this case, games owned or played by the user), while a model with no lift is no better than random guessing. A gains chart is another way to view this.
While we are probably more interested in the lift provided by the models to evaluate their efficacy, we can also explore the optimal cutpoint if we wanted to define a hard threshold for identifying games a user will own vs not own.
The threshold we select depends on how we much we care about false positives (games the model predicts that the user does not own) vs false negatives (games the user owns that the model does not predict). We can toggle threshold to
Finally, we can understand the performance of the model by examining its calibration. If the model assigns a probability of 5%, how often does the outcome actually occur? A well calibrated model is one in which the predicted probabilities reflect the probabilities we would observe in the actual data. We can assess the calibration of a model by grouping its predictions into bins and assessing how often we observe the outcome versus how often our model expects to observe the outcome.
A model that is well calibrated will closely follow the dashed line - its expected probabilities match that of the observed probabilities. A model that consistently underestimates the probability of the event will be over this dashed line, be a while a model that overestimates the probability will be under the dashed line.
What games does the model think Brittfish is most likely to own that are not in their collection?
Published | ID | Name | Pr(Owned) | Owned |
2019 | 281946 | Aftermath | 0.996 | no |
2011 | 96848 | Mage Knight Board Game | 0.820 | no |
2008 | 38453 | Space Alert | 0.629 | no |
2019 | 285984 | Last Bastion | 0.626 | no |
2018 | 230253 | Star Realms: Frontiers | 0.496 | no |
What games does the model think Brittfish is least likely to own that are in their collection?
Published | ID | Name | Pr(Owned) | Owned |
2015 | 175914 | Food Chain Magnate | 0.001 | yes |
2014 | 164812 | Roll For It! Deluxe Edition | 0.001 | yes |
2013 | 143869 | Something Different | 0.001 | yes |
2011 | 108044 | Nefarious | 0.001 | yes |
2013 | 139443 | Superfight | 0.001 | yes |
Top 25 games most likely to be owned by the user in each year, highlighting in blue the games that the user has owned.
rank | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 |
1 | Mice and Mystics | Glass Road | Five Tribes | Dungeons & Dragons: Temple of Elemental Evil Board Game | Scythe | Gloomhaven | Star Realms: Frontiers | Aftermath |
2 | Robinson Crusoe: Adventures on the Cursed Island | Lewis & Clark: The Expedition | Roll for the Galaxy | 504 | Arkham Horror: The Card Game | Betrayal at Baldur's Gate | Stuffed Fables | Last Bastion |
3 | Lords of Waterdeep | City of Remnants | Imperial Settlers | Harbour | Citadels | Spirit Island | Rising Sun | Era: Medieval Age |
4 | The Great Zimbabwe | Room 25 | Onirim (Second Edition) | Exploding Kittens: NSFW Deck | Aeon's End | Crossfire | Heroes of Terrinoth | Clank!: Legacy – Acquisitions Incorporated |
5 | Keyflower | Tash-Kalar: Arena of Legends | Tiny Epic Kingdoms | Star Realms: Colony Wars | Codenames: Deep Undercover | Codenames: Disney – Family Edition | Gen7: A Crossroads Game | Tiny Towns |
6 | Wiz-War (Eighth Edition) | Impulse | Roll Through the Ages: The Iron Age | Metal Adventures | Black Orchestra | This War of Mine: The Board Game | Everdell | Tainted Grail: The Fall of Avalon |
7 | Dungeon Command: Sting of Lolth | Magic: The Gathering – Duel Decks: Heroes vs. Monsters | Star Realms | Epic Card Game | Star Trek: Frontiers | Ex Libris | Street Masters | Call to Adventure |
8 | Dungeon Command: Heart of Cormyr | Dungeon Roll | Ultimate Werewolf | Grimslingers | Hero Realms | Jump Drive | Arkham Horror (Third Edition) | Maracaibo |
9 | Coup | Dungeon Command: Blood of Gruumsh | Sons of Anarchy: Men of Mayhem | Exploding Kittens | Perdition's Mouth: Abyssal Rift | Secrets | New Frontiers | The Lord of the Rings: Journeys in Middle-Earth |
10 | Space Cadets | Pathfinder Adventure Card Game: Rise of the Runelords – Base Set | Legendary Encounters: An Alien Deck Building Game | Zombicide Season 3: Rue Morgue | Codenames: Pictures | Gaia Project | Shadows: Amsterdam | Comanauts |
11 | Dungeon Command: Tyranny of Goblins | Eldritch Horror | Dead of Winter: A Crossroads Game | Codenames | Terraforming Mars | Escape the Dark Castle | Book of Dragons | Yukon Airways |
12 | Smash Up | Zombicide Season 2: Prison Outbreak | Deception: Murder in Hong Kong | Fury of Dracula (Third/Fourth Edition) | Honshū | Magic: The Gathering – Archenemy: Nicol Bolas | Neon Gods | Tiny Epic Tactics |
13 | Munchkin Conan | Magic: The Gathering – Duel Decks: Sorin vs. Tibalt | Magic: The Gathering – Duel Decks: Speed vs. Cunning | Between Two Cities | Dead of Winter: The Long Night | Sagrada | Dungeon Mayhem | The Only Word: the Party Word Game |
14 | Libertalia | Axis & Allies Air Force Miniatures: Bandits High | Good Cop Bad Cop | Porta Nigra | Junta: Las Cartas | Raxxon | Renegade | Tapestry |
15 | Dungeon Command: Curse of Undeath | Axis & Allies: WWI 1914 | Spurs: A Tale in the Old West | Magic: The Gathering – Duel Decks: Elspeth vs. Kiora | Conan | Altiplano | Pixel Glory: Light & Shadow | Black Angel |
16 | Axis & Allies Air Force Miniatures: Angels 20 | Legacy: The Testament of Duke de Crecy | Sheriff of Nottingham | Burgle Bros. | Aventuria: Adventure Card Game | Twilight Imperium: Fourth Edition | Cosmic Encounter: 42nd Anniversary Edition | Nights of Fire: Battle for Budapest |
17 | Seasons | The Little Prince: Make Me a Planet | AquaSphere | Runebound (Third Edition) | Mistfall: Heart of the Mists | Exploding Kittens: Party Pack | Choose Your Own Adventure: House of Danger | Unlock!: Epic Adventures |
18 | Kaijudo | Forbidden Desert | Colt Express | Tiny Epic Defenders | Mansions of Madness: Second Edition | Codenames: Duet | Pandemic: Fall of Rome | Slyville |
19 | Escape: The Curse of the Temple | Sárkánytojás | Paperback | Dale of Merchants | Ultra Tiny Epic Kingdoms | Unlock!: Escape Adventures – Fifth Avenue | Newton | Marvel Champions: The Card Game |
20 | DC Comics Deck-Building Game | Coal Baron | Magic: The Gathering – Duel Decks: Jace vs. Vraska | Unusual Suspects | When I Dream | Massive Darkness | Zombicide: Green Horde | TIME Stories Revolution: Damien 1958 NT |
21 | Legendary: A Marvel Deck Building Game | Runicards | Stay Away! | Magic: The Gathering – Arena of the Planeswalkers | Sherlock Holmes Consulting Detective: Jack the Ripper & West End Adventures | Magic: The Gathering – Duel Decks: Mind vs. Might | Magic: The Gathering – Game Night | The Magnificent |
22 | The Resistance: Avalon | BioShock Infinite: The Siege of Columbia | Roll Through the Ages: The Iron Age with Mediterranean Expansion | FUSE | Star Wars: Rebellion | Breaking Bad: The Board Game | Concept Kids: Animals | Middara: Unintentional Malum – Act 1 |
23 | Terra Mystica | Rory's Story Cubes: Prehistoria | Fairytale Games: The Battle Royale | Sylvion | Captain Sonar | Dungeon Time | Coimbra | Core Space |
24 | Timeline: General Interest | Dubious Alliance Fantasy Card Trading Game | Greed | T.I.M.E Stories | V-Sabotage | Too Many Bones | Ravage: Dungeons of Plunder | Caylus 1303 |
25 | Android: Netrunner | Munchkin Pathfinder | Pandemic: The Cure | ElfQuest Adventure Game | Splatter SHOOT | Bears vs Babies | The Order of Vampire Hunters | Choose Your Own Adventure: War with the Evil Power Master |
This is an interactive table for the model’s predictions for the training set (from resampling).
We’ll validate the model by looking at its predictions for games published in 2020. That is, how well did a model trained on a user’s collection through 2020 perform in predicting games for the user in 2020?
username | outcome | dataset | method | .metric | .estimate |
Brittfish | owned | validation | GLM | roc_auc | 0.812 |
Brittfish | owned | validation | Decision Tree | roc_auc | 0.524 |
Table of top 50 games from 2020, highlighting games that the user owns.
Published | ID | Name | Pr(Owned) | Owned |
2020 | 295577 | Dungeon Mayhem: Monster Madness | 0.316 | no |
2020 | 302723 | Forgotten Waters | 0.284 | no |
2020 | 303552 | Magic: The Gathering – Unsanctioned | 0.185 | no |
2020 | 291457 | Gloomhaven: Jaws of the Lion | 0.154 | yes |
2020 | 262274 | D6: Dungeons, Dudes, Dames, Danger, Dice and Dragons! | 0.150 | no |
2020 | 256317 | Guild Master | 0.147 | no |
2020 | 316377 | 7 Wonders (Second Edition) | 0.129 | no |
2020 | 299252 | Here to Slay | 0.110 | yes |
2020 | 282081 | The Zorro Dice Game | 0.104 | no |
2020 | 204470 | The Stygian Society | 0.100 | no |
2020 | 316554 | Dune: Imperium | 0.089 | yes |
2020 | 257145 | Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles Adventures: City Fall | 0.086 | no |
2020 | 316412 | The LOOP | 0.086 | no |
2020 | 288169 | The Fox in the Forest Duet | 0.084 | yes |
2020 | 296151 | Viscounts of the West Kingdom | 0.081 | no |
2020 | 315196 | Dungeons & Dragons: Adventure Begins | 0.074 | no |
2020 | 289939 | Goblin Teeth | 0.072 | no |
2020 | 312267 | Star Wars: Unlock! | 0.063 | no |
2020 | 299179 | Chancellorsville 1863 | 0.059 | no |
2020 | 271524 | TIME Stories Revolution: A Midsummer Night | 0.054 | no |
2020 | 292333 | Cowboys II: Cowboys & Indians Edition | 0.053 | no |
2020 | 327913 | Unlock!: Timeless Adventures – Arsène Lupin und der große weiße Diamant | 0.051 | no |
2020 | 302425 | Unlock!: Mythic Adventures | 0.051 | no |
2020 | 298371 | Wild Space | 0.043 | no |
2020 | 314040 | Pandemic Legacy: Season 0 | 0.041 | no |
2020 | 184267 | On Mars | 0.039 | no |
2020 | 301716 | Glasgow | 0.038 | no |
2020 | 304434 | Victim: The Cursed Forest | 0.037 | no |
2020 | 280794 | Etherfields | 0.036 | no |
2020 | 299452 | Dale of Merchants 3 | 0.035 | no |
2020 | 307002 | Regicide | 0.035 | no |
2020 | 282922 | Windward | 0.035 | no |
2020 | 287742 | TIME Stories Revolution: The Hadal Project | 0.035 | no |
2020 | 302310 | Nanaki | 0.033 | no |
2020 | 312346 | Munchkin Disney | 0.032 | no |
2020 | 301919 | Pandemic: Hot Zone – North America | 0.032 | no |
2020 | 301880 | Raiders of Scythia | 0.031 | no |
2020 | 295905 | Cosmic Frog | 0.031 | no |
2020 | 312804 | Pendulum | 0.031 | no |
2020 | 296237 | Warp's Edge | 0.030 | no |
2020 | 279537 | The Search for Planet X | 0.030 | yes |
2020 | 233262 | Tidal Blades: Heroes of the Reef | 0.030 | no |
2020 | 307844 | Atheneum: Mystic Library | 0.030 | no |
2020 | 309630 | Small World of Warcraft | 0.030 | no |
2020 | 299074 | Space Battle Lunchtime Card Game | 0.030 | no |
2020 | 306040 | Merv: The Heart of the Silk Road | 0.030 | no |
2020 | 300531 | Paleo | 0.029 | no |
2020 | 308329 | The Batman Who Laughs Rising | 0.029 | no |
2020 | 306481 | Tawantinsuyu: The Inca Empire | 0.028 | no |
2020 | 263192 | Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles Adventures: Change is Constant | 0.028 | no |
We can then refit our model to the training and validation set in order to predict all upcoming games for the user.
Examine the top 100 upcoming games, highlighting in blue ones the user already owns.
Published | ID | Name | Pr(Owned) | Owned |
2022 | 331106 | The Witcher: Old World | 0.558 | no |
2022 | 349067 | The Lord of the Rings: The Card Game – Revised Core Set | 0.438 | no |
2023 | 347909 | Rogue Angels: Legacy of the Burning Suns | 0.272 | no |
2021 | 331787 | Tiny Epic Dungeons | 0.253 | no |
2021 | 329670 | Pandemic: Hot Zone – Europe | 0.235 | no |
2021 | 298102 | Roll Camera!: The Filmmaking Board Game | 0.213 | no |
2021 | 299566 | Batman: The Animated Series Adventures – Shadow of the Bat | 0.211 | no |
2021 | 340237 | Wonder Book | 0.203 | yes |
2022 | 295770 | Frosthaven | 0.185 | no |
2022 | 322524 | Bardsung | 0.182 | no |
2021 | 256680 | Return to Dark Tower | 0.177 | no |
2021 | 314491 | Meadow | 0.139 | no |
2022 | 342900 | Earthborne Rangers | 0.128 | no |
2021 | 342942 | Ark Nova | 0.117 | no |
2021 | 339484 | Savannah Park | 0.106 | no |
2022 | 349793 | Age of Rome | 0.105 | no |
2021 | 332290 | Stardew Valley: The Board Game | 0.101 | no |
2021 | 328286 | Mission ISS | 0.099 | no |
2022 | 288080 | Dice Realms | 0.098 | no |
2021 | 260524 | Beyond Humanity: Colonies | 0.092 | no |
2022 | 311988 | Frostpunk: The Board Game | 0.089 | no |
2021 | 340834 | Gravwell: 2nd Edition | 0.081 | yes |
2021 | 341169 | Great Western Trail (Second Edition) | 0.080 | no |
2021 | 304783 | Hadrian's Wall | 0.080 | no |
2021 | 290236 | Canvas | 0.077 | no |
2021 | 342848 | World of Warcraft: Wrath of the Lich King | 0.074 | no |
2022 | 284842 | So, You've Been Eaten | 0.073 | no |
2021 | 347137 | Chronicles of Avel | 0.072 | no |
2021 | 340909 | Gloomholdin' | 0.072 | no |
2021 | 287608 | Epic Card Game: Duels | 0.071 | no |
2021 | 337961 | Transformers Deck-Building Game | 0.069 | no |
2021 | 339906 | The Hunger | 0.069 | no |
2022 | 251661 | Oathsworn: Into the Deepwood | 0.065 | no |
2022 | 317511 | Tindaya | 0.065 | no |
2022 | 310873 | Carnegie | 0.063 | no |
2021 | 331635 | Kameloot | 0.062 | no |
2021 | 273330 | Bloodborne: The Board Game | 0.060 | no |
2022 | 331401 | Dog Park | 0.059 | no |
2021 | 280984 | Ruins: Death Binder | 0.059 | no |
2023 | 274471 | Malhya: Lands of Legends | 0.059 | no |
2021 | 314088 | Agropolis | 0.057 | no |
2021 | 338834 | MicroMacro: Crime City – Full House | 0.057 | yes |
2021 | 262201 | Sword & Sorcery: Ancient Chronicles | 0.056 | no |
2022 | 317321 | Darkest Dungeon: The Board Game | 0.056 | no |
2021 | 295785 | Euthia: Torment of Resurrection | 0.056 | no |
2021 | 324957 | The Snallygaster Situation: Kids on Bikes Board Game | 0.056 | no |
2021 | 332800 | Summoner Wars (Second Edition) | 0.055 | yes |
2021 | 339263 | Summoner Wars (Second Edition): Starter Set | 0.054 | no |
2021 | 299255 | Vienna Connection | 0.053 | no |
2021 | 339789 | Welcome to the Moon | 0.052 | yes |
2022 | 304051 | Creature Comforts | 0.051 | no |
2021 | 315221 | Vampire: The Masquerade – Rivals Expandable Card Game | 0.050 | no |
2021 | 295947 | Cascadia | 0.050 | no |
2021 | 306202 | Philosophia: Floating World | 0.047 | no |
2022 | 340672 | Council of 12 | 0.047 | no |
2021 | 313730 | Harsh Shadows | 0.046 | no |
2021 | 346296 | Tic Tac K.O.: Dragons vs Unicorns | 0.046 | no |
2021 | 322124 | Power Rangers: Deck-Building Game | 0.046 | no |
2021 | 343526 | G.I. JOE Deck-Building Game | 0.045 | no |
2021 | 329465 | Red Rising | 0.044 | no |
2022 | 347703 | First Rat | 0.043 | no |
2022 | 333255 | Keep the Heroes Out! | 0.041 | no |
2021 | 291859 | Riftforce | 0.041 | no |
2021 | 293586 | Dungeon Party | 0.041 | no |
2021 | 324657 | Core Space: First Born | 0.041 | no |
2021 | 298383 | Golem | 0.041 | no |
2021 | 291847 | Mantis Falls | 0.040 | no |
2021 | 328479 | Living Forest | 0.040 | no |
2022 | 336986 | Flamecraft | 0.039 | no |
2021 | 336195 | League of Dungeoneers | 0.038 | no |
2022 | 338460 | The Isle of Cats: Explore & Draw | 0.038 | no |
2021 | 324242 | Sheepy Time | 0.037 | no |
2021 | 291572 | Oath: Chronicles of Empire and Exile | 0.037 | no |
2021 | 310641 | Ostium | 0.036 | no |
2022 | 334065 | Verdant | 0.036 | no |
2021 | 336794 | Galaxy Trucker | 0.034 | no |
2021 | 319899 | Decktective: Nightmare in the Mirror | 0.033 | no |
2022 | 338468 | Paperback Adventures | 0.033 | no |
2021 | 260789 | Assassin's Creed: Brotherhood of Venice | 0.033 | no |
2022 | 305096 | Endless Winter: Paleoamericans | 0.032 | no |
2021 | 307386 | Set a Watch: Swords of the Coin | 0.032 | no |
2021 | 301366 | Caves of Rwenzori | 0.032 | no |
2022 | 319807 | Shogun no Katana | 0.032 | no |
2021 | 333539 | The Siege of Runedar | 0.031 | yes |
2021 | 316287 | Quest | 0.031 | no |
2021 | 257706 | Zoo-ography | 0.031 | no |
2021 | 320446 | Corduba 27 a.C. | 0.031 | no |
2021 | 343562 | Horrified: American Monsters | 0.030 | no |
2021 | 322560 | Maeshowe: an Orkney Saga | 0.030 | no |
2022 | 275284 | Arkeis | 0.030 | no |
2021 | 315234 | Embarcadero | 0.030 | no |
2021 | 343905 | Boonlake | 0.030 | no |
2021 | 318322 | Hidden Strike: American Revolution | 0.029 | no |
2021 | 339905 | Love Letter: Princess Princess Ever After | 0.029 | no |
2021 | 318184 | Imperium: Classics | 0.029 | no |
2021 | 309207 | City Builder: Ancient World | 0.029 | no |
2022 | 318838 | Quests & Cannons: The Risen Islands | 0.028 | no |
2021 | 311920 | Ultimate Werewolf: Extreme | 0.028 | no |
2022 | 266003 | Dawnshade: The Watchers Prophecy | 0.028 | no |
2022 | 320718 | Hidden Leaders | 0.027 | no |